Ethan, who built Ballwise, sitting outside at night

What we're doing here

I'm 22. I built a model. Now I'm going to be wrong in public.

Every sports pick account you've seen sells the same thing: a screenshot of a win and a promise. Ballwise sells the opposite. A model, a ledger, and a rule that it has to prove itself before anyone pays for it.

For game totals, the model prices every NFL game from twenty inputs: how efficiently each offense has been moving the ball, recent scoring against its own baseline, wind and cloud cover at kickoff, quarterback quality, short rest, primetime and divisional flags, and how lopsided the spread is. On totals it only plays UNDERs, because that's the only side where the backtest held up honestly. For player props it builds its own number for each player and leans hardest on rushing unders. When it doesn't see an edge, it sits. When it goes cold, it halts, and the halt goes on the ledger too.

You won't find a highlight reel of wins on this site. A number on a landing page is worth nothing until it's earned live. What you'll find is every pick, timestamped, and what happened next.

— Ethan, builder of Ballwise

The bar, written down before Week 1

Nobody pays until the closing line says the model is real.

Every pick is a public paper trade until at least 30 games have been graded against the closing line, the minimum sample we wrote down before the season. The billing switch stays off until that sample clears a pre-set closing-line bar, written down before Week 1. If it misses, this page will say it missed.

Set before Week 1
The closing line
827 / 30

Plans · after the gate

Pro-grade model.
Lunch-money price.

Free during the proving season. Apps like this charge $30 to $100 a month. Ballwise starts at $10, because we'd rather prove it first. Billing opens only once the bar above is cleared across 30 qualifying games. At the current pace, that's January at the earliest. Until then, everything here is free.

Starter

$10/ MO

Free during the proving season

  • Picks before kickoff
  • Full public ledger
  • Halt-week alerts
Most useful

Pro

$20/ MO

Free during the proving season

  • Everything in Starter
  • Model notes on every pick
  • Closing-line report weekly

Elite

$40/ MO

Free during the proving season

  • Everything in Pro
  • Every pick the model releases
  • First access as sports are added

7-day free trial at full Elite access when billing opens. Founding-member price lock: early subscribers keep $10 / $20 / $40 for life, even as sports are added and prices rise. No lifetime deals, no annual plans.

Follow the season

Watch it happen
before it happens.

The ledger is the record. The feed carries the weekly ledger card, the picks, and the halt weeks. The app arrives free, and it stays free until the gate is cleared.

Get a free pickSee the full ledgerFollow on Instagram